Is Strategy Development a Chaotic Process?

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Is Strategy Development a Chaotic Process?

According to Stacey (1993) 'organisations are complex adaptive systems and the patterns in the actions of organisations, which are their strategies, emerge unpredictably in self organising processes.' This accords with a view of 'strategy development' as both predetermined (through strategic planning) AND simultaneously emergent. Is this emergent element influencing change on the predetermined strategy according to the realities experience, therefore 'chaotic'?
Furthermore, communication of the strategic intent acts as the conduit (delivery) and the narrative (content) of the implementation/manifestation of the strategy (patterns in action) or 'strategic development'.
Is this 'where the rubber meets the road'? Is this the place where effects easily lose their perceivable association with causes (Stacey 1993), 'the edge of equilibrium'?
The use of formal or informal frameworks will only be as effective as management's ability to continuously translate the strategic plans (both business and IT) and their inherent complexities into communicable narrative. If that (strategic) narrative is open to amendment, as a result of environmental shocks, would the process be best described as 'chaotic'?
Reference: Stacey, R.D. (1993), "Strategic Management and Organizational Dynamics", Pitman.

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		2 Leodegardo M. Pruna Professor, Philippines
	Strategy not a Chaotic Process Strategy is not a chaotic process. Rather, it is a logical and systematic approach which may be time consuming but when properly managed would yield into a well prepared plan of activities designed to realize enterprise's goals and objectives.

		1 Istvan Szeman Consultant, Hungary
	Strategy not a Chaotic Process I would say it is either a process or a chaos. You see, the practice of strategic planning and the review of strategic progress is very much a reflection of the leadership style at the top. For example, a systematic and well-managed approach involving a team of leaders is a sign of institutionalised (team) leadership, while a paperwork/communication based approach is probably a sign of informal, charisma-based, often autocratic leadership.

		2 Andrew Blaine Business Consultant, South Africa
	Strategy and Chaos For a situation to be defined as "Chaos" it must meet 3 conditions: 1. It must be sensitive to initial conditions; 2. It must exhibit topological mixing; and 3. Its periodic orbits must be dense. Topographical mixing means that the situation must evolve over time so that eventually all conditions overlap. Strategy applies to conditions 1 and 2, but in my opinion does not apply to condition 3, in that business strategy involves the development of a process that will lead to a defined state rather than a periodic orbit. In simpler terms, we strategise to realise a defined position or end state, not a repeating situation. Am I thinking improperly? Is strategy not rather a human attempt to regulate a chaotic environment?

		6 Jaap de Jonge Editor, Netherlands
	The Consequence of Complexity for Strategy Formulation Chaos refers to the issue of whether or not it is possible to make accurate long-term predictions about the behavior of a system, such as an organization and the market it is operating in. Pointcare and Lorentz have proven that if ( ! ) the beginning situation of any system is (very) complex, even if you would have extremely precise measurements of this begin state (which in reality you never have), tiny imprecisions in the initial conditions will grow in time at an enormous rate. This means that it is mathematically impossible to predict the future in such a situation of complexity beyond a short time frame. This does NOT mean that we cannot or should not have a strategy process to deal with such situations. But we should then include flexible elements in our strategy and establish a more emergent strategic planning process.

		1 Kishan Solanki Manager, United Arab Emirates
	Strategy is a Planned Process, not Chaotic I agree with analysis provided by @Istvan Szeman. Certainly, strategy is a planned process, in the sense that it is systematically followed with a long term view to overcome some chaotic prevailing situations.

		2 Alan Kennedy, Canada
	Is Strategy Chaotic or Just Haphazard? My issue with trying to determine whether strategy is logical or chaotic is that, in my experience, I find in most organizations, it is just plain haphazard. Strategy is still very much an art form and sometimes we forget that and think that it is a science. As an art form, the only skill we really need is to be able to "paint the picture". This was Peter Drucker's enormous talent. He could describe a situation so accurately that he could then stand back, look at his "picture", and be able to make predictions about what might happen next. Don't forget, this is a guy who predicted "privatization" long before governments embraced the notion. For me, the apparent chaos arises because we are largely unable or lack the discipline or structure to even describe the current strategies we are implementing, let alone understand how factors in the external environment are going to impact those strategies. It may look like chaos, but it is just the result of careless and haphazard management practices, in my opinion.

		4 Zondervan Management Consultant, Netherlands
	A Strategy of High Reactivity I think we need to separate two things here: - One being the nature of the ecosystem which, depending in type of industry, may exhibit random, chaotic, periodic, or highly predictable qualities. - The other is the internal strategy that needs be developed to deal with this ecosystem. If the ecosystem exhibits fast paced and chaotic behaviour, and therefore is unforgiving to preconceived concepts and plans, the strategy could consist of nothing more than a high internal reactivity and and probing into those fields that seem most promising. Then monitor results. This can be done with discipline and though little preconceived will not be chaotic or haphazard at all.

		4 Gabriel Montgomery, Sweden
	Developing a Strategy is not Linear A good strategy process has a hypothesis that is tested by the participants. It is chaotic in the same way a learning process is chaotic. The more you learn, the broader your perspective gets. And in the light of your new learning the strategy will adapt. It is impossible to tell before you start the learning process where it will end. In that perspective the strategic process is chaotic. This does not mean that the experience has to be chaotic to the participants. It probably will if they are unwilling to learn but if they approach their work as any good scientist, they will welcome every twist and turn as an opportunity to test their hypothesis and make their case stronger for the strategy they finally chose.

		5 Grant Robertson, Australia
	We Need to Be More Like Weather Forecasters Interesting and timely discussion thread, thanks all. Often strategy is used to convey a sense of determinism (certainty) which, in longer time frames, is just not available in today's complex world. ...

		2 Leodegardo M. Pruna Professor, Philippines
	Strategic Process not Chaotic But Orderly and Systematic While issues into the working of a strategic process may be diverse and incoherent, the end result would be one that is non-linear and converging to what an enterprise would like to achieve- sustainab...

		2 Alan Kennedy, Canada
	The Strategist as Weather Forecaster Mr. Robertson's comparison of strategists to weather forecasters is very helpful. My experience tells me that many organizations are not being careful enough with their study of external conditions, w...

		1 Ken Gordon Strategy Consultant, United Kingdom
	A Changing Approach to Strategy It is clear from the literature on strategy and strategic development, that the views of the key authors, relating to the efficacy of strategic choice, ranges from strategy as precise management scien...

		2 Leodegardo M. Pruna Professor, Philippines
	Flexibility in Strategic Planning @Ken Gordon MBA: I agree that the strategic process should incorporate a certain degree of flexibility to accommodate disruptive factors which may spontaneously emerge because of changes in the enviro...

		0 jorge A A Blacutt O Teacher, Bolivia
	Competing on the Edge Shona L. Brown & Kathleen M. Eisenhardt in "Competing on the edge. Strategy as Structured Chaos: "In other words, it is about combining the two parts of strategy by simultaneously addressing where yo...

		2 Istvan Szeman Consultant, Hungary
	Strategy not a Chaotic Process @Ken Gordon MBA: I fully agree that flexibility is a strategic objective. There are striking examples of this happening in different industries, like in the automotive industry, where the operational...

		0 Grant Robertson, Australia
	The Time Frame Attached to Strategies Thanks all for some interesting insights. I note very little commentary on time frames. As we all contribute, are we on the same page with regards timing? To add to the (dare I say) complexity, diffe...

		1 Ken Gordon Strategy Consultant, United Kingdom
	Time Frames Attached to Strategies In my response to the question 'what is strategy' I note that "... Convergence of the results of current actions with a predicted future is the essential aim of strategy regardless of the time-frame."...

		0 Ranjeet Menon Project Manager, India
	Reducing Chaos in Strategy Development Strategy development can be simplified if 1. The purpose of strategy and its possible impact at the business and organization level is clearly understood and defined 2. The right stakeholders are id...

		3 Bernhard Keim Business Consultant, Germany
	Chaotic Strategy May be Better Called Emergent Strategy Strategy is not always as chaotic as it might seem. The most known "chaotic" style is called emergent strategy in the so called Learning School. In this approach, rather than by deliberate planning, t...

		1 Maurice Hogarth Consultant, United Kingdom
	Strategy Development is a ‘Chaotic' Process Undoubtedly The implication of the question seems to be that some processes are 'chaotic' while others are not. Accepting the referent for "chaos" as being the extent to which it is possible to predict accuratel...

		2 Alonso Acosta Manager, Mexico
	Strategy is Primarily an Intentional Act of Sense Making I see strategy mostly as a sense making, intentional act…trying to operate and thrive in what otherwise would only be chaos. Chaos being part of what leaders must try and react to by rethinking or ada...

		3 Paramathmuni srinivas Kumar India
	Strategy is Chaotic Depending on Rate of Change in Internal and External Factors The strategy process can be both chaotic and orderly, depending on the situation: - To the extent that the internal and external environment variables are in flux, the strategy needs to be flexible e...